Property transactions set to plummet by 17% as seasonal slowdown approaches

The latest research by property purchasing specialist, House Buyer Bureau, suggest that an already weary UK property market could see transactions slide by as much 17% come spring of next year, with this downward trend likely to start in December as the market winds down for the Christmas period. 

Previous research by House Buyer Bureau found that the level of transactions seen over the last six months is already down by almost a quarter on the previous six months, as increasing mortgage costs have dampened buyer enthusiasm. 

With the market already starting to freeze over, their latest research suggests that it’s set to be a tough few months for the nation’s homesellers, as the traditional market slowdown adds to a decline in market activity. 

House Buyer Bureau analysed the average level of transactions seen over each month and quarter of the year going back over the last 10 years and how market activity is impacted by seasonality.

The research shows that at an average of 86,397 transactions, the final quarter of the year is the busiest for the UK property market, with the most transactions completing. 

In contrast, it’s the first quarter of the year that sees the lowest level of market activity. On average over the last 10 years, just 71,863 transactions complete during Q1, marking a 17% drop on the final quarter of the previous year. 

However, when looking at the average number of transactions by month, the data suggests that the market slowdown looks set to kick in as soon as December. 

On average, the level of transactions to complete in the month of December sits 2% below that seen in November. This average level of monthly transactions continues to fall to an annual low of 63,974 in January, a further -26% monthly drop versus December. 

Managing Director of House Buyer Bureau, Chris Hodgkinson, commented:

“The property market has weathered a tough period in recent weeks and we’ve already seen damage done in the form of dwindling buyer demand and a resulting drop in transaction levels, as buyers struggle to overcome the increased cost of borrowing. 

Unfortunately, this decline in transactions is set to get quite a bit worse before it gets any better and the impending seasonal slowdown which usually kicks in from December will only add to the woes of the nation’s homesellers.

The good news is that once this winter market freeze thaws in the spring, the nation’s buyers will emerge from hibernation and we should see the market start to build momentum once again. 

Although this will do little to help those who are currently trying to sell and suffering from a reduced level of interest in their property.”