Autumn Budget set to bring boost to buyer activity levels

Research by estate agent comparison site, GetAgent.co.uk, suggests that whilst property market activity has picked up in recent months, the market could see a post-Budget bounce come October, with the number of buyers entering the market historically increasing following the last nine statements.

GetAgent analysed the number of mortgage approvals seen over the two months prior and after the last 10 Budgets since March 2020 to see how the prospect of an impending Budget impacts buyer activity across the property market.*

The figures show that: -

• Following the Summer Statement in 2020, when the stamp duty holiday was announced to help boost the pandemic stricken market, the number of mortgage approvals in the two months that followed increased by 259% versus the previous two months.

• This was, of course, somewhat of an unusual Budget and, since then, there has been one other that stands out for all the wrong reasons. Following the disastrous Truss-Kwateng Mini Budget in September 2022, mortgage approval levels fell by -22.1% in the two months that followed compared to the two months leading up to it.

• When considering the data from all of the previous 10 Budgets, the figures from GetAgent show that, on average, the number of buyers entering the market increases by 10.6% following a major Budget.

• However, when taking the unusual events of both the pandemic market boom and the Mini Budget out of the equation, the figures show that the average boost to mortgage approval levels following a Budget sits at 2.9%.

• The good news is that following the last three Budgets, mortgage approval figures have increased, up by 19.6% following the 2023 March Budget, 16.4% following the Autumn Statement in November last year and by 4.6% after the Budget in March of this year.

• On average, mortgage approval levels in the two months following the last three Budgets have increased by 12.6% versus the two months prior.

Co-founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, Colby Short, commented:

"The Budget can be an incredibly influential force when it comes to property market momentum and there's no clearer example of the impact it can have than the introduction of the stamp duty holiday and the shambolic Truss Mini Budget.

Generally speaking, they tend to spur a post-Budget uplift in buyer activity and this has certainly been the case following the last three. It's not always a case of positive property market initiatives driving this increase, it can simply be down to a wait and see mentality in the lead up, which then gives way to a business as usual approach from buyers.

Top agents are often aware of these trends and will have these statements earmarked in their calendar in order to ride any immediate waves of positivity, or to negate any negative impact."