Seasonal house price trends suggest a lull is on the way despite improving market sentiment

The latest research by eXp UK, the platform for personal estate agents and estate agency businesses, has shown that while market sentiment may have improved considerably this year, agents may need to continue to adjust seller expectations, as the autumn season brings a lull in house price performance.

eXp UK analysed housing market data over the last decade*, looking at house price growth across each season and how price performance fluctuates across each period.

Housing market sentiment is high, with mortgage approvals on the up, positive house price growth building and, of course, the additional bonus of an earlier than expected cut to interest rates.

However, the research by eXp UK suggests that the improvement in house prices could now peak as we head into autumn.

The figures show that over the last decade across Britain, house prices have seen an average rate of increase of 1.5% between the summer months of June to August, with all British regions seeing similar rates of strong property price growth during these months.

In contrast, the average rate of growth seen over the last 10 years between the autumn months of September to November sits at just -0.1%, with the same rate of growth also observed over the winter months of December to February, before positive growth returns during the spring months of March to May with an average increase of 1.1%.

There are, of course, some regional variations, with house prices across the North East averaging a greater decline during the winter at -0.9%, whilst in Wales they've increased by an average of 0.7% over the last 10 winter seasons.

But with a general trend of seasonal adjustment now starting to unfold, estate agents should consider how they adjust the expectations of their sellers to align with these market trends, particularly at a time when market sentiment is improving and they may be confident in achieving a higher price than the market might dictate.

Head of eXp UK, Adam Day, commented:

"As a home seller, knowledge is power, and so understanding how seasonal trends impact your local property market can be key when it comes to deciding when to sell and how much for. 

With the price achieved generally reducing during the autumn and winter months, along with transaction levels, it's important not to get carried away by recent property market positivity and set an over-optimistic asking price, if securing a buyer at speed is your top priority."